Following a tender process, the NSW Government has selected Stockland, Link Wentworth, City West Housing, and Birribee as Homes NSW’s preferred partners
to lead the Waterloo
renewal. There is no detail in the announcement about the consortium’s winning
proposal and most of the detail in the announcement is a restatement of earlier
figures.
Homes NSW have simultaneously announced that the first relocation
notices have been pushed back until the beginning of 2025. With six months’
notice the first relocations should now mesh with the availability of the 70
new social housing units being built above the Waterloo Metro. The announcement does not tell us which CHP will run the social
housing on the Metro site. In terms of expertise we would expect Link Wentworth
to run the social housing, Birribee to run Aboriginal Housing and City West to
run the affordable housing but that is not stated anywhere.
It is clear that much still needs to be agreed between Homes
NSW and the consortium. Stockland’s notice
to the Australian Stock Exchange said: “The transaction remains subject to
completion of documentation and all relevant approvals.” The
Media Statement from the Housing Minister put it this way: ‘Homes NSW will
now start negotiating contracts with the building partners to plan, design,
deliver and fund the development over the next 10-15 years, as well as ongoing
operations. The negotiations are expected to take six months, and are the final
step in the competitive, multi-stage procurement process”. Stockland anticipates
“commencement of works is in 2027, subject to all relevant planning and
internal approvals”.
So it will take some time for the community to learn details
of what Stockland propose for Waterloo and what Homes NSW and Stockland agree.
Of importance will be how the Stockland consortium plans to deliver the increased
affordable housing required, how much of the 20% will be in perpetuity and what
Stockland has planned for the private half of the estate.
As Homes NSW sits down to finalise arrangements with the
consortium it is of concern that Home NSW have not yet responded to concerns
raised in submissions regarding its Draft People and Place Plan. This is a key
component in this next phase which the Minister’s media release says “will
ensure Homes NSW and the building partners are aligned on roles and
responsibilities, a program for renewal and how the partnership will work with
the community to deliver better outcomes for the people of Waterloo”. Elements of People and Place relate to human services and need to integrate with the work being done on current issues by the Waterloo Human Services Collaborative. Other elements have impacts wider than Waterloo South and need to be part of a wide estate management plan rather than just relate to Waterloo South.
It is encouraging that Minister Jackson has kept her undertaking
of advising tenants impacted by an announcement before they hear about it in
the media. In this case a message went out almost simultaneously with Stockland’s
required ASX announcement and the media release and media coverage followed the
next day.
The three statements from Homes NSW can be found on the
REDWatch website under Homes NSW
Advise Tenants Stockland Consortium is Waterloo South Developer or for
the Minister’s
letter to tenants and the Minister’s
media release. These are the statements
from consortium partners Stockland, Link
Wentworth and City West Housing.
Articles about the announcement appeared in the SMH’s Plans
to build 3000 new homes in Sydney’s inner south one step closer and The
Australian’s Stockland
back in the apartment business with Waterloo Estate win. The Australian
reported “Citi analysts estimated the project value between $2-3bn and put
potential profits at $300-$600m, based on margins for similar developments”. The
Australian also reported that: “Morgan Stanley analysts said Stockland would
derive profits from the 1500 build-to-sell lots which could have an end value
of about $2.2bn, as well as development fees on the affordable housing, which
would be on sold to its partners. The social housing will be delivered to the
government in lieu of land payments for the entire project”.
Geoffrey Turnbull – REDWatch Spokesperson 12 August 2024